U.S Responds to North Korea's ICBM

FOREIGN POLICY DECISION MAKING ANALYSIS: 

U.S FOREIGN POLICY ON THE NORTH KOREA'S INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILE (ICBM) IN 2017

ACCORDING TO HERBERT SIMON

Herbert Simon (1960) argues that the foreign-policy decision-making process consists of the following stages:

1. Information gathering (gathering information and identifying problems).

Tensions between the United States and North Korea peaked in 2017 triggered by Donald Trump as a most controversial U.S President. However, the main problem of tension between the United States and North Korea so far is the development of North Korea's ICBM regardless of any form of sanctions and diplomatic efforts from the United States and the UN. This is due to the insecurity of North Korea as a communist state of the US opposition and surrounded by US military bases located around the Korean peninsula. The North Korean nuclear test has violated the International Court's ruling that the use of nuclear weapons is in general contrary to the principles and regulations of international humanitarian law (IHL), despite the fact that there is no comprehensive or universal legal prohibition on nuclear weapons within the framework of international law. The development of North Korea's ICBM raises US concerns as the world's strongest military force and encourages arms race in the region, especially with Japan and South Korea, which are US alliances. In addition, North Korea's aggressiveness affects international security, which is supported by the increasingly strategic arms race of countries in different regions, where Asia faces North Korea's aggressiveness, the Middle East faces Iran, and Europe faces crisis in Crimea. This has an impact on geopolitical installation and global geo-strategy. Thus, there is a need for significant US foreign policy to stop the North Korean ICBM development project.

2. Design criteria (Develop criteria in identifying policies).

The following criteria for US foreign decision selection in the face of ICBM development of North Korea from various sources:

• According to Susan Thornton, Assistant Secretary of the US for East Asia reported US policy towards North Korea should be "maximum pressure and engagement."

• Requires increased sanctions pressure on North Korea and cooperates with allies and regional partners in diplomacy.

• According to the Foreign Policy website, it is argued that the United States should prioritize its efforts in preventing the war on the Korean Peninsula as it will result not only to the life-threatened citizen, but also to cause tension that can spread throughout the world.

3. Alternative options (use criteria to evaluate alternatives and make decisions).

There are several choices of US foreign decisions that have been made and that have not been done to stop the development of North Korean ICBM include:

a. Diplomatic Statement to "condemn" North Korea

Diplomatic statements are usually conveyed by high-ranking state officials such as the President, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and others who aim to express absolute disapproval of the actions of other countries. This statement is published through free and state-owned mass media. The advantages of this option is not too consuming a lot of resources so easy to be realized. However, its level of effectiveness is very low to change or suppress other countries' decisions and this option is a unitary action in which the state is fully acting and responsible for itself, so the tensions between the two countries and the risks that arise between them are one-on-one deals.

This option has been taken by the US in the face of tension with North Korea. In March 2017, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that "Let me be very clear: the policy of strategic patience has ended. We are exploring a new range of diplomatic, security, and economic measures. All options are on the table. North Korea must understand that the development of nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, and other weapons of mass destruction." In addition, US President, Donald Trump frequently publicizes US foreign decisions through different media, that is through tweet. As in August 2017, Trump through his twitter account says "Military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded, should North Korea act unwisely. Hopefully Kim Jong Un will find another path! ". In his speech Trump also expressed the US foreign verdict simultaneously with the direct offensive of North Korea through a controversial remarks in the UN General Assemby in September 2017 "If it is forced to defend itself or its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea. Rocket Man is on a suicide mission for himself and for his regime ".

b. Third-party neutral assistance

China is a long-standing North Korean trading partner and has a similar system of government. On the other hand, China also has close economic cooperation with the US. Thus, in the US-North Korea tension, China is the right party as a mediator of conflict. China's interest in this matter is to avoid all forms of military intervention on the Korean peninsula because it can lead to increased flow of refugees to China and the threat to communism in Asia. The advantage of this choice is the presence of a third party close to the opposition so that the level of effectiveness is higher than through diplomatic questions. However, with the presence of a third party, the United States should also take into account the interest or price of the aid, as China opposes the US-installed THAAD system around the Korean Peninsula as it may affect China's domestic security.

China has been working with the United States to suppress the development of North Korea's ICBM, as in April 2017 Donald Trump met with Xi Jin Ping to agree on closer cooperation in achieving North Korea's denuclearization. In addition, China has also proposed talks between the United States and North Korea that contain the halt of US military maneuvers and allies in the Korean peninsula, and North Korea must freeze its nuclear weapons program, but rejected by the US and North Korea.

c. US Allied Intervention

US regional allies around the Korean peninsula are Japan and South Korea. In the face of the North Korean ICBM development project, the US is always assisted by Japan and South Korea in both diplomatic and military efforts. This choice consumes a lot of US resources but the level of effectiveness can be taken into account. As in June 2017, US and South Korean Presidents held high-level meetings at Wahington to discuss North Korea's conflict resolution. Then in November 2017, US Presidents and Japanese Prime Ministers met and pledged to increase trilateral cooperation with South Korea to address North Korea's nuclear threat and US commitment to provide defense equipment to Japan, including ballistic missile defense.

In December 2017, the United States, Japan and South Korea held joint military exercises for regional security and stability against North Korea's ICBM threat.

d. UN sanctions

The UN through UNSC (United Nations Security Council) has issued several sanctions for North Korea. By 2017, there are more than 3 UN sanctions for ICBM development of North Korea. In June 2017, the UN imposed sanctions on individuals and entities associated with the North Korean ICBM program that North Korean officials with high profile and overseas assets will be frozen. Then in August 2017, imposed additional sanctions namely a full ban for exports of coal, iron, seafood and lead to North Korea. Then in September 2017, the United Nations imposed additional sanctions on North Korea namely the ban on textile exports and the reduction of imports of petroleum products. Then in December 2017, the UN imposed additional sanctions on North Korea, which cut imports of refined oil by almost 90 percent, restrict crude exports to 4 million barrels and mandate North Korean workers expulsion from other countries in two years or less. Unfortunately, these UN sanctions are considered less effective in curbing the North Korean ICBM development project.

e. US-North Korean War (not yet done, thanks God)

Another option is US military intervention to North Korea. This option is the hardest choice and needs review because there are too many risks to take. The loss of resources is certain, let alone the emergence of millions of casualties. In addition, geographical factors also hindered the war between the US and North Korea due to the distance traveled too far. But there are some conditions that might lead to a more serious escalation of conflict and even war if there are those who started the first military intervention, such as US air strikes. Or North Korea invasion, or North Korean missile attack to South Korea, Japan or US territory. As it's known so far, there has not been a condition of military invasion from both sides.

4. Implementation (realization of decision and resource allocation).

In response to North Korea's nuclear test, the United States enacted a policy towards North Korea called "Maximum pressure and engagement" to discuss North Korea's nuclear weapons without specific requirements. In addition, through a short congress, Donald trump made a statement that would increase sanctions against Korea North and cooperate with alliance countries and regional partners to discuss diplomacy

Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state, said the United States was open to North Korea on any issues. But on May 14, 2017 North Korea still did not show a positive response and again tested "The Hwasong 12 missile". So On June 1, 2017 the United States imposed sanctions on individuals or institutions linked to North Korea's nuclear weapons. Not only that the UN also imposed sanctions in the form of export restrictions on North Korea in response to a nuclear test conducted on 3 July 2017.

A leaked report from a defensive intelligence agency claiming that North Korea has increased its nuclear warheads has made President Donald Trump respond immediately by saying "North Korea is not making any more threats to the United States .... They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen. "

But it did not make North Korea stop the nuclear test but instead made a statement to re-test nuclear that is claimed to pass through the waters of Japan.Hal direct response by President Donald Trump by making a statement that the threat he once said is not enough to make North Korea afraid. He finally imposed additional sanctions on those who facilitate money and trade transactions against North Korea.

In addition, US President Donald Trump also officially declared North Korea a "state-sponsored terrorism". But it still does not stop North Korea from re-launching nuclear tests on 29 November 2017 so that the UN Security Council re-impose sanctions on North Korea by cutting oil imports by almost 90%, restricting oil exports and expelling all workers from Korea North within a period of approximately two years.

References:

Nystuen, G., & Bersagel, A. G. (2014). Nuclear Weapon Under International Law: An Overview. International Law and Policy Institute. Retrieved February 25, 2018, from https://www.geneva-academy.ch/joomlatools-files/docman-files/Nuclear%20Weapons%20Under%20International%20Law.pdf.

Park, J., & Pearson, J. (2017, March 17). U.S. policy of 'strategic patience' with North Korea over - Tillerson. Reuters. Retrieved February 25, 2018, from https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-tillerson-asia-southkorea/u-s-policy-of-strategic-patience-with-north-korea-over-tillerson-idUKKBN16O076

Buncombe, A. (2017, September 19). Donald Trump calls Kim Jong-un a 'Rocket Man on a suicide mission' in UN speech. Independent. Retrieved February 25, 2018, from http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-north-korea-kim-jong-un-rocket-man-comments-un-speech-a7955861.html

Felden, E. (2017, September 4). What is China's role in the North Korean crisis? DW. Retrieved February 25, 2018, from http://www.dw.com/en/what-is-chinas-role-in-the-north-korean-crisis/a-40029214

Miller, S. A. (2017, June 13). Trump to welcome South Korean president at the White House. Washington Times. Retrieved February 25, 2018, from https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/13/donald-trump-welcome-moon-jae-south-koreas-preside/

McCurry, J., & Wintour, P. (2017, November 6). US-Japan arms deals will help counter North Korea threat, says Trump. The Guardian. Retrieved February 25, 2018, from https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/nov/06/trump-defends-strong-rhetoric-in-calling-north-korea-a-threat-to-civilised-world

Reuter Staff. (2017, December 10). Japan, U.S., South Korea to hold missile tracking drill amid North Korea crisis. Reuters. Retrieved February 25, 2018, from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/japan-u-s-south-korea-to-hold-missile-tracking-drill-amid-north-korea-crisis-idUSKBN1E404U

UNSC. (2017, December 31). Resolutions 1718 Sanctions Committee (DPRK). Retrieved February 25, 2018, from https://www.un.org/sc/suborg/en/sanctions/1718/resolutions

x